Google Plus has been in the world for a few days now, and vast numbers of people are subscribed, despite there being some sort of limitation on getting in. You either have to get an official invitation from someone in Google, as I did, or sort of slide in sideways when someone who’s already in includes your email address in an update. The latter doesn’t always work, either; there have been times when the service is closed to new users for a few hours.
So, what is it? Well, it’s Google’s latest attempt at a social network. And rather than the new functionality of Wave, or the near invisibility of Buzz, it’s basically a copy of Facebook’s functionality - so much so that it’s surprising. However, there are some important differences, and I think they’ll become more important in the longer term. Whether they’ll lead to success or not is another matter entirely, of course.
First and foremost, where Facebook defaults to sharing all the input you give it with whoever will listen, Plus defaults to setting up “circles”, such as Friends, Family, Acquaintances, Work, and so on, straight off the bat. And then you choose which circles each piece of data you add goes to. Facebook can do this, but it’s functionality that was added much later, and which is not easily evident. People can’t see what circles they’re in, only that you have them in some circle or circles. They can, however, see a list of the other people who can see a given post.
Second, it has none of the annoying games, quizzes, and spam-producing applications for which Facebook is notorious. This makes a vast difference in the overall signal to noise ratio.
Third - and this is a subtle one - where Facebook has “like”, Plus has “+1″. This is more important than it seems, because a lot of the feedback one could give on Facebook is stymied by the semantic discomfort of clicking “Like” on a line that says “2000 killed by earthquake”, or “My dog died last night”. But the “+1″ communicates much more effectively that you feel the content is important, worth marking as such, rather than that you approve of it.
Plus is a sensible blend of technologies, terminologies, and sensitivities to privacy. It has the gradation of access from Livejournal, the ease of use that Facebook could have, if it had been properly designed, an underlying technological robustness, and very low barriers to entry, since it’s integrated with existing Google accounts.
So, it’s technically solid, but will it take off? Can it challenge Facebook? That depends. I’m bad at predicting these things, because the technical solidity means more to me. I reckoned Wave was the business, and didn’t think at first that Twitter would get anywhere - so wrong on both counts. On the other hand, I didn’t think Orkut would rise to much, and I was pretty sure Buzz would remain mostly invisible, so I haven’t been altogether wrong.
Here, in any case, is my set of predictions: Plus will never be as big as Facebook, but it will be better, and have a more loyal following. It will also be easier to monetise, which will help it immensely.
Let me deal with those in order. It will never be as big, because Facebook has now expanded to a huge number of people who have very little concept still of how the internet really works. They won’t move to Plus because they won’t really know it’s out there. Maybe some of them will move eventually, and maybe they won’t. Either way, they aren’t the core audience Plus is aiming for.
On the other hand, if you’re reading this, you’re almost certainly part of that core audience. You have an awareness of marketing and a notion of how the internet works. You have some concept of which information you want to keep private or limited, and which you’re willing to release into the world. You’ll use Plus because you know it’s better, and that makes a difference to you.
These technically informed circles are the people Google need to reach with plus, because we’re the people to whom they can offer advertising that works best. Google will monetise Plus, there’s no question of that. But they’ll do it with subtle, sensible ads, targeting keywords and demographics in a very, very precise manner, like they do with gmail today - except more so. There will be a point where you are never offered an ad that doesn’t have some appeal to you, either on a basis of want or need.
Facebook, I reckon, will be left as the place in which you communicate with more distant people - relatives you don’t often see or deal with, school friends, neighbours from three houses ago, and so on. Plus will be where your core networks, your closest circles, end up.